Alodia's "Sleight-of-Hand" Coup

Aloville, January 7, 2001 -- Last week's takeover of the Government of Alodia by its Army caught nearly everyone by surprise. Even the two announcements that were broadcast prior the televised speech by General Samuel Akuopha on the 2nd, displayed the nation's seal and flag and said merely that "An historic event will occur at 1:00 PM this afternoon."

While the regime of President Jacques Boshodi, who was re- elected to a third four-year term in 1998, was widely unpopular, it was considered by most observers to be stable. Alodia has suffered from the now all-too familiar litany of African problems, but it appeared to be making progress at restoring solvency through debt restructuring, and its agricultural sector and tourism industry had both been posting gains. Negotiations for debt relief under the International Monetary Fund's "Heavily Indebted Poor Nations" initiative have been proceeding, and some of Alodia's debt appeared destined to be forgiven.

What many foreign observers, and indeed many Alodian citizens, seem not to have been aware of, however, is the stature of the Army in this nation. Courted at various times in its history by both the United States and the Soviet Union, it was well- provisioned with military hardware. The country has long maintained an all-volunteer army, and military careers are generally viewed as prestigious and desirable. There is also, evidently, no lack of discipline or organization. When troops moved in the Capital on this New Year's Day, their operations were almost completely simultaneous. Some 150 heavily armed soldiers materialized at the National Assembly at 1:00 PM, immediately disarming the security forces on hand. They proceeded to evacuate and shut the building in less than two hours' time; no shots were fired and no injuries reported. The seizing of executive offices and other key government departments were similarly swift. The army appears to have been ordered against making any statements at all. Aside from General Akuopha himself, no reports of any statements made by any Alodian soldier have yet surfaced in the press.

Akuopha's speech harkened repeatedly to the memory of Alodia's "founding President", the much-loved Jean-Henri Alo, whom Akuopha claimed as personal friend and mentor. The speech emphasized, albeit vaguely, reform of economic and taxation policy. Its most striking element, however, was the assertion that Alodia would unilaterally cease making payments on its external debt. Alodia's debts are considerable, with total foreign obligations of some $25 billion, and it has been meeting revenue shortfalls with new borrowing and other aid of nearly $1 billion per year.

International reaction to Akuopha's debt-policy gauntlet has been largely dismissive. A senior White House official repeated the US's official condemnation of the coup, adding that "on the international debt policy, I don't think he has thought that one through very well." IMF spokesman Harvey Rugla laid out, in a press conference, the world financial community's probable response to Alodia's promised repudiation -- which would include the severest available economic sanctions available under the IMF guidelines. Rugla stressed that Alodia was a member nation and "knows the rules as well as anybody." But, he added, such a drastic outcome was unlikely. "It would be a policy of economic suicide, and they have enough problems as it is. We expect this repudiation plan to be dropped in very short order."

Alodian sources, however, seem convinced that the new regime will sticking with its position. Akupoha himself has given one press conference since the coup, in which he stated, "The banks are portraying me as not having done my homework. But this plan did not, after all, just occur to us this week. We have been studying it for quite some time, and we will implement it with firm deliberation. We have the team of experts we need to make it work."

As for Alodians themselves, many have expressed relief that the Oshodi regime has been ousted, even if they have reservations about the way it was done. There does appear to be considerable confusion about Akuopha's economic proposals. Senator after Senator from the now-disbanded National Assembly has appeared in the press calling for specifics on just what it is that Akuopha plans to do. Akuopha, who has installed his staff in the Presidential Palace and is using the residence as an office, has promised to publish his economic plan in detail by the end of this month. All those with their eyes on the new President, foreign leaders, international banks, and his own citizens, seem inclined to give Akuopha that much time -- if not, perhaps, much more.